This big fall in Turkish Lira against USD to nearly record low from November has the country’s people curious and searching about Bitcoin.
The price of Bitcoin is on the rise today, going above $58,000 after a drop to just under $55,500 over the weekend.
While it has been a bad weekend for the Bitcoin longs, trader and economist Alex Kruger says, “we are up for a strong week.” From cryptocurrencies, stocks, bonds, to metals, everything will be up while the dollar makes its way down.
His reason for a risk-on week is the stimulus checks that Americans have been receiving since last week. Also, because bonds rallied on Friday’s major negative news, the Federal Reserve declined to extend its Covid-19 capital break-in, which is “very positive for tech, which dominates risk sentiment.”
The Fed said it would allow a change to the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) to expire March 31, when announced in April 2020; this allowed banks to exclude Treasury and deposits with Fed banks from the calculation of the leverage ratio.
According to some, it could be a signal that the central bank won’t buy $120 billion of bonds a month indefinitely.
However, Kruger said, the concerns in the form of portfolio rebalancing outflows for equities, crypto regulatory FUD re-emerging, and that the crypto curve steepens too fast can hurt the bulls.
The gains to mark the start of the week are coming as the US dollar eases down after surging past 92 level, aiming for an early March level of 92.5, which was seen in late November before that, on Sunday. The greenback rallied on the back of higher Treasury yields following the Fed’s pushback against speculation over interest rate spikes but is having a slight red start of the week.
The US economy is heading for its strongest growth in about 40 years, with inflation expected to jump to 2.4% this year, above the central bank’s 2% target as policymakers pledge to keep on supplying aid, said Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
According to BofA, US 10-year Treasury yields could rise to 2.15% by year-end, having revised its target citing “much more aggressive” US fiscal stimulus impulse and rapid vaccinations in the US.
Amidst all this, the Turkish Lira (TRY) crashed 15% on Monday, approaching its record low from November, and dollar bonds sold off following President Tayyip Erdogan’s decision to oust a central bank governor.
Turkish stock index also slipped 9% to a three-month low after the appointment of Sahap Kavcioglu, a former banker and ruling party lawmaker, which sparked fears of a reversal of recent rate hikes. Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX at Commerzbank said,
“It may well be that interest rate hikes are once again permitted by Erdogan in a phase of crisis-like lira depreciation, but the recent developments should have shown currency traders that even then a sustainable monetary policy regime change is not to be expected.”
“The calming effect of interest rate hikes has probably been largely destroyed.”
The South African rand has also slipped ahead of the central bank meeting, where the South Africa Reserve Bank is expected to keep the rates unchanged. Alex Gladstein, Chief Strategy Officer at the Human Rights Foundation noted,
“A nation of 82 million sees its currency crash 15% in a single day. No coincidence that Turkey has some of the highest per-capita Bitcoin usage in the world. A growing number of Turks are peacefully choosing a different monetary system that their oppressors can’t control.”
Interestingly, the fall in Turkey’s fiat currency coincides with a surge in Google searches for the term “Bitcoin.” Ever since October, it has been on an uptrend and took a big jump today before normalizing.