Bitcoin, along with the rest of the cryptocurrency market, is currently amidst an unmitigated period of indecision. A contradiction of solid pumpamentals and a shaken retail trading crowd has led to a stalemate of frustrating proportions.
Then again, you can’t really complain about $10K BTC. Especially when global buyers have repeatedly stood their ground to say this is what one bitcoin is worth. As crypto traders, we’re used to two market modes:
Is there room for anything in between? As a demographic of traders, “cryptomaniacs” (as famed technical analyst Peter Brandt calls us) probably have no idea how to handle periods of indecision.
Shouldn’t we be celebrating these moments of comparatively low volatility? Is this not bitcoin’s store-of-value argument in proof and deed? Of course, if SoV is true for bitcoin, then its day-to-day moves will be more incremental.
That doesn’t mean BTC can’t/won’t achieve the stratospheric values we hope for, but it might not get there as quickly or decisively as everyone wants.
Tuesday’s drop and retest of the $10K marker happened on low volume that failed to challenge support in that area substantively. Like a $185 billion yo-yo, the price of Bitcoin has taken off in the opposite direction by a similar dollar amount, adding around $350 back on in the process.
Given the sheer amount of fundamental developments on the horizon for Bitcoin, there are a couple of immediately apparent scenarios:
1. Any move down from here to the Sept. 23 Bakkt Futures product launch is a buying opportunity.
2. Bakkt is priced in (and has been for a long time), in which case a move down can be sustained with occasional fake-out pumps to trap buyers.
Binance driving indecision?
At $10,332, bitcoin’s indecision may be directly tied in with the fear surrounding Binance’s structural reorganization. That’s a nice way of saying that Binance is on the brink of axing American customers from its global service.
With some estimates claiming Americans make up 30% of global crypto trading volume, shunning a financial powerhouse from the majority of assets available on Binance might be a bad thing. There’s really no telling, which also means that crypto’s pseudonymity is an effective privacy safeguard.
That hasn’t stopped a few prominent digital assets from performing strongly in recent days. ATOM, KCS, and even ICX have shown themselves as winners in the short term, but whether they’ll go the distance is another matter.
Some altcoin moves are based on fundamental developments. ICON, for instance, went live with staking this month, while KuCoin announced a second anniversary BTC sale which requires KCS for participation.
Binance’s move away from US customers is rife with unresolved questions surrounding execution. For instance, how will Binance know who is American and not? Using IP detection will unfairly exclude US-based non-American traders.
These questions don’t appear to be slowing the Binance.US rollout. Just a few hours ago, Binance.US tweeted that onboarding for American clients is now underway.
They also used the hashtag #ThisIsJustTheBeginning when addressing the variety of digital assets available on the exchange.
As always, anything Binance does is worth paying close attention to, even if your non-American Binance account is #SAFU.
Altcoins showing surprising resilience
It’s no secret that altcoins have been taking a crazy beating as of late. Just when you thought the bottom was in, they vaporize all previous support and head lower.
Maybe that goes some way in explaining why, right now, altcoins are showing a decent amount of strength relative to BTC.
Realistically, how much lower can they go? The truth is, there’s simply no telling where this pit of despair ends. In a way, that is up to the developers behind altcoin projects. Broken promises, endless delays, and the faint sting of countless scams continue to haunt the industry.
Nonetheless, development is happening – we just need to be patient. As the king of altcoins, Ethereum is the perfect marker for observing the relative health of the altcoin market as a whole.
After looking primed to head for the .014 range, ETHBTC has been experiencing something of a rally since the .0161 low a few days back. It’s too soon to tell whether this is steam gathering or just another relief rally.
But, considering BTC’s current moves, we should have our answer soon enough.